Dáil Éireann Projection

Preset Examples

*Generates vote shares close to the nowcast to simulate polling error, it changes every time you click it. Click here to see this uncertainty across 1000 simulations.

Input your projected vote shares for each party

Disclaimer

This is not an official prediction. Instead, it is an educational tool to visualise how the next Dáil could look under certain scenarios.
The numbers here are a projection of the next election based on modified proportional swing from 2024. It currently assumes that all parties will contest every constituency which is not always the case but we will lock in the real candidates once nominations close.
There are other methods which could be used to create projections which may create different results. The results should not be taken as fact as there are likely to be some specific candidates who over and under perform for personal reasons and transfers are notoriously difficult to model. In particular, the fortunes of independents are very complicated to project.
There may also be local issues and fine margins which impact results. If you'd like to find out more about how STV works please read this NI Assembly guide, to find your constituency visit the Electoral Commission, or to register to vote, visit CheckTheRegister.ie.