Quick Guide

What is Irish Election Projections?

Welcome to the first customisable, constituency level projection for Irish Elections.

How It Works

This is a simple tool to visualise changes in polls and to game out scenarios. We’ve put a few of our own scenarios at the top to give you a flavour of its range, they include the November 2024 election and first preferences results from June’s Local Election.

There’s also a way of creating a left-wing government (loosely defined) and a Nowcast. The Nowcast is a rolling average of recent polling so should be the most realistic. But, if the polls are off then our Nowcast will be off and we do not commission any polls.

You are not confined to our preset numbers and can enter anything at all (as long as it’s close to 100%). If you want to game out any other scenario then go for it: you can give 80% to Aontú, give Fianna Fáil a worse time than 2011, or recreate old elections under current boundaries.

We provide constituency level approximations including animations showing where transfers are likely to go and a coalition builder where you can add parties of your choice to get over the magic 87 mark.

The System

STV is simple. Voters rank as many candidates as they like; 1, 2, 7, 15… entirely their choice. There is a target quota to reach which is set in stone. If someone gets a bunch of votes beyond the quota then their second preference votes are counted to try to represent the wishes of as many voters as possible.

If no one is elected, whoever is in last place is eliminated and their votes are transferred to their voter's next highest preference. The system repeats until all the seats are filled. It’s not complicated, but it can be slow.

We project all of this instantly. Every party which won 1% of the vote last time is included.

We are non-partisan and our aim is to create as accurate a result as possible. It won’t be perfect so please don’t bet based on our projection.

For a more thorough explanation of the system or our workings, click here. A presidential projection will be announced once we know the candidates. A Northern Ireland projection is already live!