Bye-Election Projection

Add the candidates standing in the bye-election, choose their party (or Independent category), and enter your expected first-preference vote shares. Shares should sum to between 95% and 100%.

Input your projected vote shares for each party

Polling-average preset by constituencyConstituency preset

Party

Vote Share

Party

Vote Share

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin

Fine Gael

Soc Dem

Labour

Ind Ireland

PBP-S

Aontú

Green

Add party or candidateAdd

Disclaimer

This is not an official prediction. It is an educational tool to visualise how a bye-election might play out under the Alternative Vote (used in single-seat Irish bye-elections via STV).
Transfers use the same baseline preferences observed in past Irish elections that drive our Dáil projection. The share of an eliminated candidate's votes that cannot be transferred (because the parties that would normally receive them have already been eliminated) fades out as non-transferable. Vote shares must sum to between 95% and 100%.
If you enter identical vote shares for multiple parties the tool will randomise the order of elimination.

About Bye-Elections

A Dáil bye-election is held to fill a single vacant seat, these can occur because the existing TD resigned, retired or passed away. Officially Ireland uses the Single Transferable Vote in bye-elections, but when just one seat is being contested it becames identical to the Alternative Vote. Voters rank candidates in order of preference, if no one has more than 50% on the first count, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated and their votes redistributed to each voter's next highest preference. The process continues until one candidate is over 50% or only one candidate remains.

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