Presidential Election Projection

Input your expected first preference vote shares for the presidential candidates to see the projected outcome. Adjust the percentages to explore different scenarios - just make sure they sum to 100%.

Input your projected vote shares for each candidate

Vote Shares

Connolly (Ind)

Gavin (FF)i

Humphreys (FG)

Transfer PreferencesiThe votes of the third placed candidate will be redistributed according to this slider

Connolly (Ind) transfers

GavinHumphreys

50% to Gavin, 50% to Humphreys

Gavin (FF) transfers

ConnollyHumphreys

50% to Connolly, 50% to Humphreys

Humphreys (FG) transfers

ConnollyGavin

50% to Connolly, 50% to Gavin

Disclaimer

This is not an official prediction. Instead, it is an educational tool to visualise how the next presidential election could look under certain scenarios.
Transfer preferences default to an even 50/50 split between remaining candidates but you can adjust the sliders to model different transfer patterns, a small number will become non-transferable.
If you'd like to find out more about how STV works please read this NI Assembly guide, to find your constituency visit the Electoral Commission, or to register to vote, visit CheckTheRegister.ie.
If you enter identical vote shares for multiple candidates the tool will randomise an order of elimination or winner selection.

About the Presidential Election

The President of Ireland is elected using a variation of STV known as Alternative Vote (AV). Voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes on the first count, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are transferred to the remaining candidates based on second preferences. This process continues until one candidate has more than 50% of the votes OR only one candiate remains.

This year only Catherine Connolly (Independent), Heather Humphreys (Fine Gael), and Jim Gavin (Fianna Fáil) recieved enough nominations to be on the ballot. Jim Gavin suspended his campaign on the 5th of October but his name remains on the ballot.

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