Presidential Election Projection

Input your expected first preference vote shares for the presidential candidates to see the projected outcome. Adjust the percentages to explore different scenarios - just make sure they sum to 100%.

Input your projected vote shares for each candidate

Connolly (Ind)

Humphreys (FG)

Gavin (FF)

Other

Transfer Friendliness

Connolly (Ind): 1.0x

Humphreys (FG): 1.0x

Gavin (FF): 1.0x

Other: 1.0x

Twice as toxic (0.5x)Twice as friendly (2.0x)

Disclaimer

This is not an official prediction. Instead, it is an educational tool to visualise how the next presidential election could look under certain scenarios.
Transfer ratios are based on 2024 general election but are estimates. Making a candidate more or less transfer friendly changes the number of transfers they receive when other candidates are eliminated.
If you'd like to find out more about how STV works please read this NI Assembly guide, to find your constituency visit the Electoral Commission, or to register to vote, visit CheckTheRegister.ie.
If you enter identical vote shares for multiple last placed candidates the tool will randomise an order of elimination.

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About the Presidential Election

The President of Ireland is elected using a variation of STV known as Alternative Vote (AV). Voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes on the first count, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are transferred to the remaining candidates based on second preferences. This process continues until one candidate has more than 50% of the votes OR only one candiate remains.

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