Polling Error Analysis
Below are the summary results of running 1000 simulations of the next Dáil election using randomised vote shares centred around the current polling average. Each simulation applies margin of error variation to show a wide range of possible outcomes.
Based on the Monte Carlo method, this analysis aims to demonstrate the degree of uncertainty that's inevitable in election projections and show how even small polling errors can lead to significantly different outcomes. In many cases the difference between an excellent year for a party and a terrible year is well within a normal polling error.
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This simulation uses a normal distribution of errors from the polling average which means that parties are just as likely to overperform as they are to underperform their average. The vast majority of misses will have each party's vote share within 2.5% of the polling average but there will be some rare instances where the misses are much larger.