Welcome!

The goal of this project is not to create a perfect projection. Instead it aims to create a realistic estimate of results so people can better visualise how STV works and gain a clearer understanding of how votes translate into seats.

Our projections are non-partisan and neutral, we aim to replicate potential results as accurately as possible so have absolutely no interest in making any party appear to be doing better or worse on our website.

Our blog may contain opinions.

Summary of Targets

This project will be successful if, after the actual results are inputted:

• 90% of Dáil seats (155) are correct, independents are hard!
• 95% of constituency seats are correct in the Northern Ireland Assembly (81 seats)

The order in which seats are awarded isn't important to these targets.

NowCast

We will be updating the Nowcast preset as new polls come in. This is a moving average of recent polls and is better when more polls are included, especially if they take a variety of approaches and are done at around the same time.

Averages effectively reduce the margin of error which creates a result which is less affected by variations in each poll. If the polls are close to the actual result then the Nowcast will be close, if they're far away then the Nowcast will be off. We do not commission any polls and we do not recommend any particular polling companies.

We take a broad approach to which polls we accept as there is no consistent evidence that any methodology is better than any other. We retain the right to exclude polling companies at our discretion but will only step in and exclude or downweight polls if we feel they are particularly poor quality in terms of methodology. We will include polls with outlying results as they can sometimes be the canary in the coalmine.

Do not use this as a guide for betting. The results of the Nowcast do not constitute the official expectations of IrishElections. If we decide to make an official projection we will announce it as such.

But still don't bet based on that!

Get involved

Play around with the projection and send us anything you think is odd, it's supposed to be able to handle a lot of out-there numbers but it's not invincible.

You can also suggest things for us to cover on our blog and we're happy to be a platform for anyone with an interest in politics or elections to express their views. Please feel free to pitch ideas at: irishelectionprojection@gmail.com