Galway West Bye-Election
Galway West bye-election transfers
You can see our other test in Dublin Central here.
Our Projection
Our projection had Kyne (Fine Gael) winning, with 38.6% to Independent Ireland’s Thomas on 31.1%. We expected Ogbu to be a close third, she came a little further behind than expected but still a comfortable third.
Results
Real Life
Kyne (Fine Gael) won, beating Independent Ireland’s Thomas 40.1% to 34.5%. Kyne overtook Thomas after Labour’s Ogbu was eliminated. Ogbu collected a lot of transfers but was unable to catch up to the top two.
Results
Differences
We slightly overestimated the number of transfers that the Soc Docs would get from Cubbard (Ind, Centre) and underestimated the transfers from Cubbard to Fianna Fáil. That swapped the order of elimination but it didn’t have big effect. Otherwise we were really close.
Reading the charts
Use the play button on each chart to step through the rounds, or use the round selector to jump directly to a specific count. The bar shading shows which candidates are still in contention; eliminated candidates drop to zero before their preferences flow to the remaining candidates.